2007 Catastrophe Potential

So, you think you're paying a lot for gasoline NOW? Here's a news item on an A.M. Best Co. report.

More generally with respect to catastrophes, I think one of the most fascinating developments to watch over the next couple of years will be whether the movement toward greater acceptance of global warning (and thus, according to its adherents, greater frequency and/or severity potential of catastrophes) will lead to wide acknowledgement of the need for higher property-casualty insurance rates and changes in underwriting standards...

- Rick

Interest Rates Dressed to the Nines

Here's an interesting short piece from Bloomberg. I didn't realize that in China, interest rates are always in multiples of nine.

An important point if anyone is ever trying to project future Chinese interest rates with a stochastic scenario generator or a dynamic financial analysis model!

- Rick

Speak Now, or Forever Hold Your Piece of the Pie

An interesting interview with one of the authors of some research on fear in the workplace (particularly, fear of speaking up and contributing to discussions) can be found at HBS Working Knowledge, a newsletter of the Harvard Business School. Title: "Do I Dare Say Something?"

For those who are early in their careers, or even still in school, it is important to remember that the longer you wait to become "participative," the harder it is to make that move. Don't talk just for the sake of talking -- but also don't underestimate your ability to contribute.

- Rick

Actuaries of Gasoline?

Here's an article from the News & Observer (Raleigh, North Carolina), about "ratemaking" for gas stations. It might be interesting to think about how the process used by these "actuaries of gasoline" differs from the traditional actuarial ratemaking process.

- Rick

When to Begin Taking Social Security

Here's an interesting NYT article on the debate over when to begin taking Social Security payments. Coincidentally, this weekend's WSJ had an article discussing the uncertainty regarding retirement expenses, and how some retirees find the expenses to be greater than they had anticipated.

- Rick

Greenspan and Probabilities

I often like to begin classes with a "current event" or some other item in the recent news. Often, these items deal with statistics or probabilities -- about which there are often communication or interpretation problems.

Since we're now into summer, I have no classroom forum in which to present the following -- so this blog is my outlet.

From (among other places) Bloomberg comes the following Alan Greenspan quote:

"At the moment, I still say as I said before, by algebraic implications, the odds are 2 to 1 we won't have a recession."

Yikes!

- Rick