Even Actuaries Aren't Clairvoyant

This is an interesting press release, from the UK actuarial profession, regarding new mortality tables. A couple of key sentences:

Previous sets of tables have incorporated projections of future mortality, but this has not been done with the latest tables because of the uncertainty surrounding future improvements.... Instead the profession is saying that actuaries – and other professionals using mortality projections – should consider a range of scenarios.

Apparently, the UK organization feels that medical and other developments are occurring with too much rapidity and uncertainty to allow traditional actuarial point estimate projections.

- Rick