Football and Actuarial Science

It has become popular to offer prizes or monetary awards in the event of something occurring. Examples are numerous:

• Prizes for holes-in-one at golf tournaments.
• Awards for successfully making a basket from half-court at half-time of an NBA game.
• Taco Bell's offer, a few years ago, of a free taco to everyone in the U.S. if the space station Mir hit a target off the coast of Australia when it fell back to earth (it missed....).
• The capture of the Loch Ness monster (I think it was Seagrams that offered an award for this a few decades ago -- they insured this contingency with Lloyd's of London) (no one cashed in....).

Here is a link to an article describing a recent example -- free furniture because the Bears shut out the Packers! (Woof woof!!!)

As an actuary, how would YOU have priced this?

- Rick