Human Probability Assessments I

Here's a quote that I just cited in a paper I submitted a couple of days ago:

“People are bad at assessing probabilities. They are bad at it not just because they are bad at addition and multiplication. Rather, people are bad at probability in a deep, intuitive level: they overestimate the probability of rare but shocking events… Conversely, they underestimate the probability of common, but quiet and insidious events… When it comes to understanding probability, people basically suck.”

The quote is from Seth Lloyd's "Living is Fatal" contribution to Edge.org's 2011 Annual Question: What Scientific Concept Would Improve Everybody’s Cognitive Toolkit?

Edge.org asks such a question each year, and collects responses from over 100 selected contributors. Very interesting browsing, and very thought-provoking.

- Rick