Human Probability Assessments II

Another quote from the 2011 Annual Question of Edge.org. This time, it's from Antony Garrett Lisi's contribution, "Uncalculated Risk":

“We humans are terrible at dealing with probability. We are not merely bad at it, but seem hardwired to be incompetent, in spite of the fact that we encounter innumerable circumstances every day which depend on accurate probabilistic calculations for our well-being… This blind spot in our collective consciousness – the inability to deal with probability – may seem insignificant, but it has dire practical consequences. We are afraid of the wrong things, and we are making bad decisions… We are especially ill-equipped to manage risk when dealing with small likelihoods of major events.”

- Rick